A top elections handicapper says Democrats are on track to regain control of the House in the 2026 midterm cycle, as often has been the case at the midway point of a new presidential administration — but it won't be an easy feat.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball released its first 2026 ratings analysis Thursday, predicting Democrats will win the majority, but with a competitive electoral map.
Republicans currently have a slim majority in the House, with 220 Republicans, 213 Democratic members, and two vacancies in districts previously held by Democrats. The value for Republicans of each seat in 2026 was underlined by President Trump withdrawing his nomination for Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), amid worries about political headwinds in usually safe red districts.
Historically, the party that loses the presidential election has had an advantage in wrestling control of the House in midterm elections.
"Democrats should flip the House next year, and we favor them to do so," Crystal Ball analyst and managing editor Kyle Kondik wrote in the summary of initial predictions. "Republicans do have a couple of factors working in their favor, though, that could help them as they seek to defy history."
"The competitive map, at least as it stands at the starting point, is not that large, and our initial ratings show a competitive race for control," he added.
The elections gurus have rated 19 districts as "toss-ups" in their initial assessments, meaning either side could win them in 2026. If holding onto all other seats, Democrats would need nine of the toss-ups to win the majority, while Republicans would need 11.
"The ratings show a very evenly divided race for the House even though our overall assessment is that the Democrats are more significant favorites," Kondik wrote. "But the ratings also show a path for Republicans, if they can defend the bulk of their most vulnerable members, get a better map in Ohio and perhaps elsewhere, and play offense in at least a handful of Democratic sweeps."
Ohio lawmakers are set to redraw the state's 15 congressional districts this year. Currently, the state is represented by five Democrats and 10 Republicans, but that could change, depending on the new map. The process will be punted to an independent commission in October if the GOP-controlled Legislature doesn't reach a bipartisan agreement.
